Since the near stage, the downstream polyester, the terminal loom industry has caused a small blow to the PTA market festival due to low demand for Spring Festival. As of February 21, the average processing fee of PTA was maintained at 261 yuan / ton, and more than half of the 580 yuan / ton of January. At present, it has been called to the lower edge of the processing fee safety boundary. Most companies are in a loss.

However, with the arrival of February, the impact of geopolitics friction, and the impact of Meili negotiations, the crude oil rebounded sharply, and the focus of PTA is rising. In the short term, the market's trading logic is still at the end of the market.

Russian Wuling continues to heat up oil price risk fluctuations

Affected by the recent geopolitics, the fuel fluctuation of crude oil in February continued to increase, mainly due to deterioration of the situation or from energy supply risks. Because of 30% of crude oil in Europe, 40% of natural gas imports rely on Russia, and if energy supply has problems, other countries cannot compensate in the short term.

The current Iraqi Energy Minister said that the current crude oil market is balanced, and OPEC + does not need to improve oil production faster; will receive a research report on March 7, and then determine the next step in OPEC +. Therefore, in the context of current high oil prices, the current focus of the market is still the impact of the Russian-in-law on the supply of crude oil supply, and whether the EU sanctions in the later EU wave exported to Russia crude oil exports.

In view, there are many peripheral uncertainty factors in the near future, and the risks of crude oil market have exacerbated, and the impact on PTA cost is large.

Most companies have lost the probability of enterprises in the later business

As the PTA processing fee is presented, the probability of the joint enterprise in the later business is large.

From the device load, it has been put into operation on January 28, 2022. Considering Yi Sheng Ningbo 2 million tons of device and Yi Sheng's new material 1 # 3.36 million tons of maintenance and download operation, the stage is offset the pressure increase in supply-to-end capacity, but in February, the downstream polyester market is basically in the Lantern Festival. Then I really returned to the market. For the actual procurement of the demand, there is a certain lag, and the efforts of Jiangsu epidemic influence the progress of the local downstream enterprises, leading to the market cumulative library, but the amplitude is slightly narrowed.

If the PTA processing fee will continue to operate in March, the probability of joint loss of domestic major factory is biased. It is reported that March of March 2.25 million tons of equipment plan maintenance, the post-processing fee is concerned about enterprise load under low processing costs The impact of the supply end.

Post-holiday market demand has not fully opened the market waiting further verification

After the Spring Festival, the polyester and the terminal market have not fully recovered, resulting in insufficient demand, and dragging the PTA. On the first week of the Spring Festival, although some downstream polyester companies and end businesses gradually worked, the terminal weaving machine industry was maintained at 21.75% after the Spring Festival period, which fell 20.27 percentage points before the Spring Festival. After the Lantern Festival, the terminal weaving machine industry operates continued to rise, and it has rebounded from February 17 to about 5%.

The polyester integrated starting rate has returned to 90%, and it is in the new high since May 2021. As of 18 days, the inventory of various varieties of polyester continued to rise, and the terminal orders were not obvious, and the positive procurement was weak, and the polyester stock lifted. With the recovery of polyester production companies, some companies will usher in the spare cycle, but can boost the raw material market and remain to be verified.

At present, the main logic of the PTA market transaction is still the end; the medium and long term, if it is in the context of low-processing costs, the probability of the large factory combined with reduced pressure is large, with the downstream polyester market and terminal loop industry It will gradually pick up, and the changes in market supply fundamentals will also become the focus of subsequent trading, but it also focuses on the impact of the uncertainties of the peripherals.