[How should polyester factories cope with the decline in the opening probability of multiple textile major towns?]
Release date:[2022/11/23] Read a total of[69]time

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the operating cost of China's chemical fiber industry increased by 13.64% year on year from January to September, 5.95 percentage points higher than the revenue growth rate. The total profit was 17.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.42% year on year; Revenue margin was 2.18%; The loss area of the industry reached 35.09%, and the loss amount of loss-making enterprises increased by 144.91% year-on-year.

Statistics show that in the first three quarters, the average price of PTA is 6,173 yuan/ton, and the average price of dacron filament DTY is 9,546 yuan/ton. Among them, the average price of PTA in the third quarter was 6236 yuan/ton, down by 424 yuan/ton, down by 6.37%; The average DTY price of polyester filament was 9358 yuan/ton, down by 343 yuan/ton, down by 3.53%.

Will the life of polyester enterprises improve as the year draws to a close?

Since the beginning of November, marginal improvement of macro expectations has formed stage support for the price of crude oil at the cost end. For the garment and textile industry, the Double 11 has passed, and the demand is usually off season from the end of the year to the Spring Festival next year. The marginal improvement of domestic epidemic policy may have limited boost to the near-end demand.

With the gradual realization of negative expectations, the continuous compression of raw material processing poor also leads to the increase of unplanned supply reduction in the near future, the short-term accumulation pressure is slightly delayed, and the negative drive is weakened. However, after December, as the new production capacity of PX, PTA and ethylene glycol is gradually implemented, the inventory pressure is still large under the pattern of oversupply, and the cost support of polyester will gradually weaken.

Negative feedback on the demand side increases shut-off in several textile key towns

After October, the epidemic spread frequently in China, and major textile wholesale markets such as Dishiqiao in Nantong and Zhongda Textile Circle in Guangzhou had difficulty in delivering goods due to the impact of epidemic control, and new weaving orders plummeted.

China Keqiao Textile Index shows that in early mid-November, the sales of clothing fabrics in the local textile market fell month-on-month, the transaction in the traditional market declined month-on-month, and the daily price volume fell month-on-month. The market subscription of the counterpart merchants partial contraction, the mass fabric market transaction decreased month-on-month, the autumn fabric spot transaction decreased month-on-month, the early winter running volume of product spot transaction and order delivery decreased month-on-month, the price fell month-on-month. Among them, pure cotton, polyester, polyester viscose, polyester ammonia, viscose fabric transaction price volume fell, pulling the clothing fabric price index fell month on month. The comprehensive opening rate of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas is difficult to improve in short term.

In addition, with the end of the textile demand seasonal peak season has passed, overlapping the domestic epidemic, the market is generally pessimistic about the demand before the end of the year. Downstream textile such as early holiday increase, operating rate declined significantly, for the filament negative feedback will increase the filament price pressure.

To sum up, there is certain support at the short-term cost end, but with the end of the textile and garment demand seasonal peak season has passed, the domestic epidemic has repeated, the market is generally pessimistic about the demand before the end of the year. If the downstream textile enterprises appear in advance of the holiday, the rate of decline and other phenomena, filament prices will be under pressure again.

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