[Today's chemical fiber polyester market is a game of ]
Release date:[2020/8/11] Read a total of[202]time

From the perspective of the development of the entire textile industry, the upstream raw material companies are basically private and state-owned enterprises in the industrial chain, while the interrupted raw material companies are all giants in industries such as Hengli, Hengyi, Tongkun, Rongsheng Tyrant. The continuous price increase of upstream raw material companies has led to the continuous increase of production costs of polyester companies. Polyester companies are already prepared for price increases, but downstream companies do not buy it, causing an embarrassing situation for the entire industry.

   Every source and confidence returned, high-stock polyester manufacturers finally breathed a sigh of relief

   Crude oil has been steadily rising in recent months, driving the entire polyester raw material support. Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, it has formed a greater driving force for the polyester raw material product market, and the PTA and ethylene glycol markets have recovered, which in turn promoted the rise of polyester yarn prices.

   Entering August, the persistently sluggish polyester market finally ushered in a better performance. In addition to maintaining a slight increase in prices, production and sales are the best proof. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers have increased from less than 40% in the previous period to 60% to 80%. Even when the oil price has risen sharply, there has been a market of more than 100%. The inventory of polyester manufacturers The pressure is again transferred to downstream manufacturers. According to an industry source, some major manufacturers have indicated that they may reduce preferential policies or even increase prices in the later period, which to a certain extent also drives the downstream market's mentality of bargain hunting.

   At the same time, the textile market finally received good news in late July despite the shortage of orders in the first half of the year. According to data, the trading atmosphere in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has improved recently compared to the previous period. Most of the transactions are concentrated in autumn and winter fabrics. Both domestic and foreign markets have performed well, especially in the domestic market. Among them, the performance of elasticity is better, and the orders for other conventional autumn and winter fabrics are also better than the previous period, such as Shumei silk and bile cloth used for lining, warp knit suede and velvet used for sofa release. In addition, medium thickness Type clothing fabrics also have a certain performance, especially after a special finishing process is used to make down jackets, cotton clothing and other fabrics, the market proofing and sample performance are better.

Since entering the off-season, downstream weaving manufacturers have been cautious about the purchase of raw materials. They dare not arbitrarily put funds into the raw materials, and the raw materials purchased in the early stage are not much left. In addition, part of the current terminal orders are placed during the visit and research. , The rise of grey fabric inventories of most weaving factories has slowed down or production and sales can be levelled, and the inventories of a few manufacturers of marketable products have fallen slightly, which has also boosted the confidence of market participants. This led to this wave of market. This wave of purchases really relieved polyester manufacturers with high inventories!

   The market flipped in just one week! The start-up rate drops from 100% to 50%, and the machine stops waiting for work! The textile market is stuck in the off-season quagmire again!

   However, after only less than a week, it was suddenly reported that there was a serious shortage of some market orders and production was unsustainable.

  1. Lack of orders, printing returns to the off-season

   Although the traditional printing peak season has not yet arrived in September and October, judging from the recent performance of the printing market, it is likely that this wave of market has been overdrawn in advance, and it is a luxury to talk about the peak season in the future. A big factor in this situation is the continued post-sales of finished garments.

"Recently, we had an order for 2,000 meters in a printing factory. The grey fabric came into the warehouse last week. We queued up for 3 days to produce it. It was printed recently. I was going to finalize the shape and ship it today. Call the salesman to help him line up to prepare for the finalization. Who knows that the factory is not busy now, all 4 setting machines are parked there waiting for customers to get the fabric to finalize the design, there is no need to line up, and ten printing machines are not full Only 5-6 units are in operation." A fabric trader said.

   As we all know, printed fabrics are mainly used in spring and summer clothing, while the main function of winter clothing is still to keep warm. Although fashion and popular concepts have begun to awaken in recent years, it is difficult to "pop a hundred flowers" like spring and summer clothing in a short time. The peak season in September and October is mainly for the production of autumn and winter clothing. Winter clothing does not need many printing elements. What about autumn clothing?

   Autumn clothing may have driven the printing market into the peak season in previous years, but this year is obviously difficult to do. This spring, due to the epidemic, the entire sales season was missed, and a large number of clothing enterprise warehouses were filled with spring clothing stocks. Some of them change part of spring clothes into autumn clothes for sale, or sell them directly intact, which leads to a significant decrease in demand for autumn clothes.

More importantly, some clothing giants have taken the lead in expressly indicating that they will cancel or reduce autumn clothing orders. American sports giant Nike said that it has cancelled about 30% of factory orders before the fall and end of the shopping season; American fashion luxury group Ralph Lauren said, About two-thirds of autumn orders have been cancelled.

  The future of autumn orders is so uncertain, naturally, the stamina of printing orders in this area is seriously insufficient. But what is even more frightening is that if this fall can't digest the stock of spring clothing in the first half of the year, it is likely that this part of the stock will shift to the next spring. If you miss the two peak seasons of this year and then the spring market next year, the printing market will be even more bleak.

   Obviously, the market is not only bleak for printing factories, but also the condition of dyeing factories is not optimistic.

   2. The operating rate has dropped, and the dyeing fee is clearly negotiable

The production status of the    dyeing factory is the most intuitive feedback of the textile market. Although the overall printing and dyeing market is not in good condition this year, the operating rate of half a month ago performed well in the off-season, but the duration of this state is very short.

"In July, the daily warehouse volume in the factory was able to reach 400,000 to 500,000 meters per day, and the operating rate could be maintained at 60-70%. However, the market is not working recently. Now the daily warehouse volume in the factory is only 350,000 meters. Around, the operating rate can only guarantee 50%." A person in charge of the dyeing factory said.

July and August are the traditional textile off-season. I thought that the special dyeing factories in the market this year were not in the off-season. Who knows that the market is fleeting, while the orders are decreasing, the dyeing factories can only seek to reduce dyeing fees to attract Order. It is reported that many large factories have begun to inform that for some large customers and large order prices, they can directly communicate with the dyeing factory owner and give appropriate preferential prices to keep customer orders.

  The order quantity is limited, and continuous reduction of production capacity is not a long-term solution. Reluctantly, dye factories can only compete for orders by lowering prices. However, dyeing factories will not have the cost advantages of weaving factories. The price of upstream chemical fiber raw materials is reduced, and weaving can confidently reduce the price of grey fabrics. However, the price reduction of dyestuffs in dyeing factories is quite limited. Secondly, the production costs of dyeing factories are scattered. Rents, water, electricity, gas, labor, fire protection, environmental protection, etc. are very complicated, and only dyes are not enough to have too much influence on dyeing fees. Dyeing factories may have sacrificed a lot to make big price cuts. Most of them are making money at a loss, just to maintain normal production.

   The normal rebound of low prices, the possibility of polyester filaments rising sharply is unlikely

   Although polyester filaments ushered in a wave of destocking under the favorable resonance of all parties, and weaving factories are actively replenishing goods, there are still big negative factors behind this. Especially in this year's poor environment and the traditional off-season situation, negative factors are more likely to be "fatal." In today's textile market, the two-level differentiation is more obvious, and products are unevenly heated and cold. Although the sales of some products are hot, but looking at the whole market, the slow-sale of conventional products is even more common, and the partial improvement cannot continue to drive the market to warm up. Therefore, in addition to the late-stage reduction in production, the tired inventory is still the mainstream. According to reports, the current stock of grey fabrics in Shengze is around 45-46 days. Inventory continues to refresh and the demand for polyester yarn will weaken more obviously.

However, we must also see that although there have been more recent shipments in the market, it only affects a few products such as T8, washed velvet, and imitation memory, while pongee, polyester taffeta, and simulation Because of the large inventory accumulated in the early stage, the quantity of products such as silk is not ideal.

   Therefore, from the perspective of upstream and downstream, there are not many favorable factors for the price increase of polyester filament at this stage, and these favorable factors have unsustainable characteristics. Therefore, the editor more understands this increase as a normal callback of the long-term low price of polyester raw materials. The price may continue to rise slowly in the future, but without other positive stimuli, the possibility of a sharp increase is unlikely.

   What will the next polyester filament look like?

  The first is of course the epidemic. According to the most optimistic estimate, the earliest time that the new crown epidemic was brought under control in the world was in the fourth quarter of this year, and it has only been more than a month away. Of course, judging from the current situation, the number of confirmed cases worldwide is still growing rapidly, and there are no signs of being contained yet.

   However, no one knows the changes in the epidemic. In the future, the epidemic in some overseas countries and regions may be controlled first, and it is still unclear that some markets will be restored first.

   The other is the rapidly changing international relations. Since Trump came to power in 2016, he has been "making troubles". After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, due to a series of "smart extinguishing" operations, the number of infections in the United States is the highest in the world, and Trump is also because of this reason. The approval rating plummeted. In order to be re-elected, he began to operate more crazily than ever. Recently, the international version of TikTok has become a lot of trouble. After Pompeo tasted the sweetness, he threatened to remove more Chinese apps. Will this storm affect textiles? Foreign trade is still unknown.

Poly Plastic Masterbatch (SuZhou) Co.,Ltd. specializes in the research and manufacture of the following masterbatch and masterbatch: polyester Masterbatch, PET masterbatch, PA masterbatch, chemical fiber masterbatch, fiber masterbatch, polyester Masterbatchnylon masterbatch, polypropylene masterbatch, BCF carpet masterbatch, plastic masterbatch, polyester Masterbatch.

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