[Continue to rise! In July, the forecast value of the plastic raw material index increased!]
Release date:[2020/7/21] Read a total of[252]time

Following in the footsteps of crude oil, the plastics market continues to rise.

After nearly two months of silence, crude oil production continued to decline, and international oil prices continued to rise after a short-term decline. Since July, oil prices have basically recovered to their highs in the past six months. As the end product of the crude oil industry chain, the plastics industry has a certain lag in the transmission of crude oil prices, but it can be found through the Da Yi index that the trend of plastic raw materials in July is still basically consistent with crude oil prices, showing an overall upward trend.

Qu Dayi Yousu’s recently released Dayi Index shows that the forecast value of PP Dayi Index in July is 745; LLDPE is 974; LDPE is 1145; HDPE is 672; ABS is 1500. Compared with the June Dayi Index, both have risen in different ranges. Among them, the predicted value of the ABS index has risen by 16.8%.
The Dayi Index is obtained by collating historical weekly price data, using an autoregressive model to predict the price of the next period, and taking the price of the first period of historical data as the benchmark price. The rise or fall of the Da Yi Index means that the market has entered a better or lower stage, and the market price of plastic raw materials will also rise or fall accordingly.

Regarding the rising factors in July, Da Yi Index analysts said that OPEC+ has implemented an unprecedented production reduction agreement, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates continue to reduce production excessively. Therefore, since the third quarter, the crude oil market as a whole is in a recovery stage, and the plastic market price is supported. .

In addition, on July 15, local time, OPEC issued a statement stating that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels per day from August. Boosted by regional politics, coupled with the influence of factors such as the slight reduction in operating rate, equipment shutdown and maintenance, and the decrease in production capacity, the overall macro-level multiple positive drivers are expected to maintain a steady rise in plastic prices in the future.
In terms of PP, the overall trend of the polypropylene market is expected to fluctuate strongly in July, with an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. Taking the East China market as an example, the mainstream quotation of wire drawing is 7850-8050 yuan/ton.

In terms of 倠E, it is expected that the domestic polyethylene market will fluctuate and stabilize in July. Taking linear as an example, Dayi predicts that the mainstream linear price will fluctuate in the range of 6,700-7700 yuan/ton, and the main linear futures contract L2009 will fluctuate in the range of 6,700 Within the range of -7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of ABS, the raw material prices in July may be weak and the cost-side support weakened; on the supply side, the Zhenjiang Chi Mei device plans to restart at the beginning of the month, and the Shandong Haijiang device inventory is expected to be negative, and the domestic supply will be at a high level; on the demand side, the refrigerator plan The production volume increased, and the planned air-conditioning production volume decreased, but it still increased significantly year-on-year. The demand-side support is acceptable. Dayi Yousu expects that the ABS market price in July may be adjusted within a narrow range.
As a tool to reflect plastic price trends and analyze price trends, the Dayi Index covers major plastic varieties at home and abroad, and organizes massive data from multiple dimensions such as domestic and international markets, basis, cost, output, operating rate, inventory, etc. Analysis and comprehensive comparison, so as to provide standardized index reference for the majority of plasticization enterprises.

On the whole, the overall performance of the plastic raw materials market in July was acceptable, with small increases in the market. "But it should be noted that global public health incidents continue to spread, the relationship between Europe and the United States and China is becoming increasingly tense, and the recovery of downstream demand is slow, and high risks still need to be avoided." Da Yi Index analyst pointed out.


Poly Plastic Masterbatch (SuZhou) Co.,Ltd. specializes in the research and manufacture of the following masterbatch and masterbatch: polyester Masterbatch, PET masterbatch, PA masterbatch, chemical fiber masterbatch, fiber masterbatch, polyester Masterbatchnylon masterbatch, polypropylene masterbatch, BCF carpet masterbatch, plastic masterbatch, polyester Masterbatch.

Related Keywords: